* Mike Huckabee 24%
* Sarah Palin 14%
* Mitt Romney 14%
* Newt Gingrich 11%
* Tim Pawlenty 8%
* Ron Paul 7%
* Mitch Daniels 4%
* John Thune 1%
PPP surveyed 515 usual national Republican primary voters from January 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%.
I found these two key paragraphs in the data to be of particular interest:
In November, Huckabee was back at 16% behind Palin’s 21%, Gingrich’s 19%, and Romney’s 18%,and Pawlenty was tied with Paul at 5%, followed by Thune’s 3% and Daniels’ 2%. The movement for Pawlenty is within the margin of error, but he is usually in the low single digits in any national or state-level polls, interchangeable with Thune and Daniels.
In the last two months, Huckabee has leapt from 14% to 25% with the three-quarters of Republicans who call themselves conservative. Gingrich has done the reverse, declining from 23% to 11% with them, while Palin has fallen back to 16% from 24%, and Romney holds steady at 14%. But Romney, who usually makes up for weakness among conservatives with strength among moderates, has gone from a 25-20 lead over Huckabee with centrists to second place at 18% behind Huckabee’s consistent 20%.
Will Huckabee use this data and make a quick decision to embark on a presidential run? Not so fast, as Huckabee indicated in his interview with Fox News host Martha Maccallum :
"Polls are nothing more than a snapshot in time...I would rather be polled at the top than the bottom..and it's very complimentary but it does not necessarily equate into a mandate to run or foretelling of an election."
That being said, the polls that have come out this week, NBC/WSJ, WP/ABC and PPP, clearly show that Huckabee has the best chance of becoming the Republican nominee.
Huckabee 21% average (18%, 21%, 24%)
Romney 16.7% average (19%, 17%, 14%)
Palin 15.7% average (14%, 19%, 14%)
Gingrich 10% average (10%, 9%, 11%)
That being said, the polls that have come out this week, NBC/WSJ, WP/ABC and PPP, clearly show that Huckabee has the best chance of becoming the Republican nominee.
Huckabee 21% average (18%, 21%, 24%)
Romney 16.7% average (19%, 17%, 14%)
Palin 15.7% average (14%, 19%, 14%)
Gingrich 10% average (10%, 9%, 11%)
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