Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Mike Huckabee and New Hampshire Polling Results

Should Mike Huckabee make an extra effort to woo the voters in New Hampshire or should he go straight to South Carolina where history shows that whomever wins the South Carolina primary wins the Republican Nomination?

Strategic National Consulting Firm

Romney  33.51%  [31%]
Huckabee  13.83%  [11%]
Palin    12.77%
Gingrich  8.62%
Pawlenty  5.21%
Daniels  1.60%
Santorum  1.28%
Barbour  0.96%
Thune  0.21%
Other/Undecided  22.02%

[  ] indicates 2008 NH primary results

Strategic National surveyed a random sample of typical New Hampshire Republican primary voters.  The statewide, automated poll had a total of 940 respondents.  It was conducted on January 19, 2010, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

 As we can see, there is a difference between those polled by phone and those who attended last weekend's straw poll. As WMUR stated, the straw poll shows "just how deep the support among the GOP worker-bees who help these candidates fundraise and organize their campaigns in the state."

Mitt Romney  35%   [37%]
Ron Paul   11%   [7.65%]
Tim Pawlenty    8%
Sarah Palin    7%
Michele Bachmann   5%
Jim DeMint   5%
Herman Cain   4%
Chris Christie   3%
Rick Santorum  3%
Mitch Daniels     3%
Newt Gingrich     3%
Mike Huckabee   3%  [11%]
Mike Pence     3%
Rudy Giuliani   2%  [8.5%]
Judd Gregg      2%
Gary Johnson   2%
Other        2%
Donald Trump  1%
Haley Barbour   1%
Jon Huntsman Jr.    0%
John Thune        0%

[  ] indicates 2008 NH primary results 

273 ballots were cast out of the 500 Republicans who were eligible to vote in the straw poll.

Those who cast their ballot also had the opportunity to let the New Hampshire Republican party know what was their top priority:  Which issue is the most important for the republican presidential nominee to focus on?  Reducing the size of government   49%

Do straw polls really indicate which candidate will take the state on actual voting day?

In July of 2007, the Coalition of New Hampshire Taxpayers conducted a straw poll and the clear winner was Ron Paul with 65%, Rudy Giuliani 8%, Mitt Romney 4% and Mike Huckabee 3%.  Clearly Ron Paul was not able to transfer that straw poll energy to the actual NH primary.

John McCain  37%
Mitt Romney  31%
Mike Huckabee  11%
Rudy Giuliani  8%
Ron Paul  8%
Fred Thompson  1%

In August of 2007, Mitt Romney won the Iowa Ames straw poll with 31.6%, Mike Huckabee 18.1%, and Sam Brownback 15.3%.  Both Giuliani and McCain skipped the Iowa straw poll.  Mitt Romney was not able to transfer his lead from the straw poll to the actual caucus.  Instead Mike Huckabee transferred the straw poll energy and beat Romney in the Iowa caucus by 10%.

Mike Huckabee 35%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4%

What do you think Mike Huckabee's strategy should be?


  1. I think Gov. Huckabee should compete in NH. Every percentage point counts.

  2. Hi, TC -

    I vote that after Huck wins HUGE again in IOWA.. he then spends two days tops in NH at some local mega churches, and then gets his Army over to the all-important state of SC, campaign 24/7 and wrap up a BIG WIN there with a big red bow on the likely nomination. As South Carolina goes, so goes Huck in Tampa! : )

    Romney will try to counter with wins in NH & NV but almost no one and especially the media will care.

    ALL momentum will be on Huck going forward, imo.


    P.S. It looks very likely that Huck's friend from Utah, Ambassador Huntsman Jr. is going to run. That's a game changer (stalls Romney's support) and really helps Mike.