Mike Huckabee Best Bet to Beat Obama in Iowa

Mike Huckabee continues to be the Republicans best bet to beat President Obama in 2012 and flip Iowa back into a Red state. PPP released their latest data showing Mike Huckabee tieing President Obama in Iowa. Huckabee's polling numbers have risen while Obama's have declined.

Public Policy Polling

Iowa 2012 Presidential Survey

* Mike Huckabee 45% (43%)
* Barack Obama 45% (47%)

* Barack Obama 45% (47%)

* Mitt Romney 41% (41%)

* Barack Obama 50% (51%)

* Newt Gingrich 39% (38%)

* Barack Obama 51%

* Donald Trump 35%

* Barack Obama 53% (53%)

* Sarah Palin 36% (37%)

Among Independents

* Mike Huckabee 44% (42%)
* Barack Obama 40% (41%)

* Barack Obama 41% (40%)

* Mitt Romney 37% (38%)

* Barack Obama 47% (49%)

* Newt Gingrich 34% (34%)

* Barack Obama 54%

* Donald Trump 35%

* Barack Obama 52% (49%)

* Sarah Palin 33% (38%)

Among Republicans

* Mike Huckabee 88% (79%)
* Barack Obama 5% (10%)

* Mitt Romney 81% (76%)

* Barack Obama 6% (11%)

* Newt Gingrich 79% (73%)

* Barack Obama 9% (13%)

* Sarah Palin 73% (67%)

* Barack Obama 10% (17%)

* Donald Trump 66%

* Barack Obama 9%

Survey of 1,109 Iowa voters was conducted April 15-17, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 38% (37%) Democrat; 33% (37%) Republican; 29% (25%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 22% Somewhat conservative; 20% Very conservative; 19% Somewhat liberal; 8% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011 are in parentheses.

H/T The Argo Journal for data compilation

PPP Nuggets:

Obama is now knotted at 45% with Mike Huckabee, winner of the 2008 caucuses and current leader of the early 2012 delegate race, per Tuesday’s release. In January, Obama led, 47-43.

If Trump were to lose the GOP nomination and launch an independent bid, he would eat severely into Romney’s support and essentially none into Obama’s. Obama would lead a three-way race with 43% over Romney’s 27% and Trump’s 21%. Trump brings Romney down from 81% to only 56% of the GOP and from 37% of independents to only 22%.

“Obama could have a much harder time of it in Iowa next year than he did in 2008- unless the Republicans bail him out with a Trump or Palin like nominee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP Twitter Nuggets:

Obama won Iowa by 10 in 2008. Now he's tied with Mike Huckabee and only leads Mitt Romney by 4:

Numbers suggest that if GOP goes with Romney, even a non-Trump far right 3rd choice could have big impact:

Trump polls at 21% as indy in Iowa. Gets 31% of GOP vote, runs ahead of Mitt with independents:

Obama leads Romney by 4 in Iowa. With Trump as 3rd candidate, Obama leads Romney by 16 there: