Mike Huckabee leads PPP National Republican Polling while Trump Fades

The spring weather saying, In like a Lion out like a Lamb, can also be said of Donald Trump's emergence onto the national stage of potential Republican candidates.  Trump quickly rose to the top and is now fading away.  Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee holds steady as the lead candidate for the 2012 Republican nomination.

Public Policy Polling

2012 GOP Nomination Survey

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

* Mike Huckabee 19% {17%}

* Mitt Romney 18% {15%}

* Newt Gingrich 13% {11%}

* Sarah Palin 12% {8%}

* Ron Paul 8% {5%}

* Donald Trump 8% {26%}

* Michele Bachmann 7% {4%}

* Tim Pawlenty 5% {4%}

Survey of 610 usual Republican primary voters was conducted May 5-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.

H/T the Argo Journal for data compilation

Mike Huckabee to Speak at Dallas NCPA Distinguished Lecture Series May 12th

Mike Huckabee will be in Dallas this Thursday, May 12th to speak at the National Center for Policy Analysis

Hatton W. Sumners Distinguished Lecture Series

When: Thursday, May 12, 2011, Noon to 1:15 PM

Where: San Antonio Ballroom, 4th Floor, Westin Galleria Dallas, 13340 Dallas Parkway, Dallas, TX 75240

Complimentary self-parking is available in the parking garage. Valet parking is available at the discounted rate of $12 per vehicle.

On May 12, join the National Center for Policy Analysis as we welcome Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, former candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States, and host of the Fox News Channel program “Huckabee,” as a part of the Hatton W. Sumners Distinguished Lecture Series. Huckabee is also an author of several books, including A Simple Government and Do The Right Thing

You can register here.

Gallup: Mike Huckabee leads Biggest Array of Categories in latest Presidential Trial Heat

Republican voters will be looking to elect a candidate who can win across a broad spectrum of categories. Mike Huckabee is that candidate as he leads amongst Men, Women, Conservatives, Middle Income, Non-College Educated, Youth, Middle Age, Midwest, and the South.

Gallup: 2012 GOP Presidential Trial Heat

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 15-20, March 18-22, and Feb. 18-20, 2011, with a random sample of at least 1,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, at each of these time periods.

For results based on the total aggregate sample of 3,304 Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Tim Pawlenty beams "I Love the Huck"

Mike Huckabee was not at the first Republican debate in South Carolina because he has not made a final decision on a run. Newt Gingrich who announced he was testing the waters declined the debate invitation even though word has it that he will announce next week. Mitt Romney has formed an exploratory committee but was not ready to take the debate stage. That left former governor Tim Pawlenty with the opportunity to light up the stage. And he did by stating "I Love the Huck!"

Mike Huckabee sits down with Bill Hemmer and talks about the debate, Afghanistan, Ronald Reagan, and a possible run for the Republican nomination.

Mike Huckabee Continues to Lead CNN Republican Survey

Mike Huckabee continues to lead the CNN Republican Nomination Survey. As CNN indicated in their write up, the eventual GOP winner was leading the polls taken in April of the previous year. For the third month in a row, Mike Huckabee has led the CNN polling no matter which other potential candidates are added into the mix.

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Mike Huckabee 16%

Donald Trump 14%

Mitt Romney 13%

Sarah Palin 11%

Newt Gingrich 10%

Ron Paul 10%

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted April 29-May 1, with 1,034 adult Americans questioned by telephone. All interviews were completed before the president announced that bin Laden, the founder and leader of the al Qaeda terrorist network and the man responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks, was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN Nuggets:

GOP primary match-ups are another matter – since the modern era of presidential primaries began in 1972, there have been six times when the GOP nomination was up for grabs. In five of those six election cycles, the eventual GOP winner was leading the polls taken in April of the previous year.

This indicator is another good reason for Mike Huckabee to jump into the race this summer.  

Mike Huckabee Ramping Up for a Run (Updated)

Supporters of Mike Huckabee will be happy to learn that after Memorial Day their choice for the Republican nomination may be throwing his hat into the ring. A detailed report out today by Erin McPike of Real Clear Politics states that Fox News has given Mike Huckabee until the end of May to make his decision. This coincides with Huckabee's contract which is up for renewal in June.

Yesterday Huckabee was inside the Beltway raising funds for republicans as well as his own PAC. According to the Wall St Journal, supporters who donated $1000 were given the opportunity to ask Huckabee exclusive questions about his intentions for the nomination.

Ed Rollins recently stated that Huckabee would need to make a decision by June 1st. In McPike's article, we learn:

Edward J. Rollins, who joined Huckabee's team as national chairman in mid-December of 2007 -- just weeks before Huckabee solidly won the 2008 Iowa caucuses -- has been charged with setting up shop.

According to a confidant of Rollins who has been slated for a high-level position in the potential campaign, "Ed has had long and serious discussions with Mike as recently as this past weekend." Rollins would manage the first phase of the Huckabee campaign this time.

On a national level, Rollins has gotten verbal agreements from experienced Republican operatives who would join the team. A political director, fundraising team, media team, communications director, press staff, policy shop and opposition research outfit are locked and loaded. Serious discussions with a respected national pollster are ongoing, and several national Republican operatives have told RealClearPolitics that they've gotten calls with the message: "This thing is happening. Do you want to be a part of it?"

The gathering national team has a different take, though. Rollins has worked on nine presidential campaigns and has developed many contacts over that time, and he has recruited a team over the last four months that will be ready to roll if Huckabee pulls the trigger.

As a consequence of that more professional, experienced team, some of the players who surrounded Huckabee last time aren't necessarily needed anymore. In other words, Huckabee was an upstart last time and couldn't attract top-tier talent, and he didn't even have some of the most significant leaders of the religious right on board when he started in 2007.

More than 40,000 Iowans picked him in the 2008 caucuses, and those in Huckabee's inner circle expect that his daughter, Sarah Huckabee, will run the operation for her father in the Hawkeye State this time, coming off of her successful role in managing Arkansas Republican Sen. John Boozman's 2010 race.

Now, he may have to offer his decision by the end of the month. Republican operatives familiar with the deliberations at Fox News say that the network has told Huckabee he has until the end of the month to make up his mind about the race or he'll be cut off, just as Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum were when the then-contributors were still in the consideration phase.

Noting Barbour's decision not to run, Beasley said, "I think the landscape is conducive for a Mike Huckabee entrance. Right now, we're putting together the team and putting the word out that Mike Huckabee is seriously considering this race."

He added that with Huckabee's current national notoriety, "this time around it's a whole different ballgame. He's in a good position at this stage of the process.

Mike Huckabee has consistently said that if and when he decides to run, it will be his race, his pace. Looks like Huckabee is ready to get into the starting block. His supporters are not only ready in the stands to cheer him on, but are anxiously awaiting the sound of the starting gun, so that they themselves can work to get him the nomination.

* Update:  Since this posted earlier this morning, Mike Huckabee has issued a statement via Huck PAC:

During a Huck PAC fundraiser yesterday in the DC area - Gov. Huckabee was asked about a Presidential run and he told the group privately the same thing he's said countless times publicly. The Governor's comment was tweeted by a Congressman who was in the meeting: 'people that say they definitely know I'm not running, don't know - those that say they definitely know I am, don't know - I don't know.' What does it say about the news when a Congressman can report real quotes that actually came from Governor Huckabee - while journalists use other sources and unsubstantiated rumor?

The Governor has been clear - his timeline for a decision is this summer and that has not changed. Fox is aware of the Governor's timetable and he is aware of his limitations in considering another run.

** Additional information regarding Fox News deadline:

Fox News denied that it has given former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) a deadline of the end of May to decide whether to run for president.

A senior Fox official disputed a report Thursday by Real Clear Politics that Huckabee has been given a deadline of the end of May to decide whether to enter the race for the Republican presidential nomination, which would prompt him to forfeit his lucrative contract with the network.

"There is no truth whatsoever to this report," said Bill Shine, the executive vice president of programming for Fox. 

Mike Huckabee: Postmarked Pakistan

In an interview with CNN's Suzanne Malveaux back in 2007 Mike Huckabee stated that all indications were that Osama bin laden was in Pakistan and that if we had another terrorist attack it would be postmarked Pakistan. He went on to describe American tax dollars being wasted by a government that was not producing results. Huckabee said we needed to be very clear in holding that government accountable for not only the way they treat their people but also in helping us locate and destroy Osama bin Laden.

Politico reports that in November 2007 Mike Huckabee also stated:

"We need to make sure we are clear that if we have an actionable target in Pakistan, that we will take action on that target because if that helps save and preserve American people," Huckabee said at the time, according to CNN, saying he would respond that way if he saw an "imminent threat" within Pakistan's borders. "That's the foremost thing we need to be worried about."

Sen. John McCain criticized Huckabee at the time for it, calling it evidence of political naivete and saying, "I certainly wouldn't telegraph my punches."

In December 2007, Mike Huckabee went on Meet the Press with Tim Russert.  One important issue they discussed was Pakistan:

"One of the things I want to point out about that article, I spoke about Pakistan extensively back in September, and a lot of people criticized the article, saying `You talk so much about Pakistan, and you didn't speak as much about Iran.' You know, a lot of people have criticized my foreign policy views, but the fact is, in light of what's happened in the last week, some of my comments on Pakistan seem almost prophetic."