Mike Huckabee would keep Missouri Red, otherwise it could be a Toss Up

In 2008, it was a nail biter between John McCain and Barack Obama: – 0.13 points/3,903 vote difference, McCain 1,445,814  49.36%  Obama 1,441,911  49.23%.  The GOP can ensure that Missouri stays red in 2012 by electing Mike Huckabee as their nominee.

Public Policy Polling

Missouri 2012 Presidential Survey

* Mike Huckabee 49% (49%)
* Barack Obama 43% (42%)

* Mitt Romney 44% (47%)

* Barack Obama 43% (41%)

* Barack Obama 44% (44%)

* Newt Gingrich 44% (45%)

* Barack Obama 48% (46%)

* Sarah Palin 43% (43%)

Among Independents

* Mike Huckabee 49% (49%)
* Barack Obama 35% (37%)

* Mitt Romney 45% (47%)

* Barack Obama 33% (35%)

* Newt Gingrich 41% (43%)

* Barack Obama 39% (41%)

* Barack Obama 43% (45%)

* Sarah Palin 40% (40%)

Among Men

* Mike Huckabee 51% (54%)
* Barack Obama 41% (38%)

* Mitt Romney 47% (52%)

* Barack Obama 40% (36%)

* Newt Gingrich 47% (50%)

* Barack Obama 42% (40%)

* Barack Obama 45% (43%)

* Sarah Palin 44% (48%)

Among Women

* Mike Huckabee 48% (46%)
* Barack Obama 45% (45%)

* Barack Obama 45% (46%)

* Mitt Romney 41% (42%)

* Barack Obama 46% (47%)

* Newt Gingrich 42% (41%)

* Barack Obama 50% (48%)

* Sarah Palin 42% (39%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

* Mike Huckabee 45% (51%) / 35% (29%) {+10%}

* Mitt Romney 32% (30%) / 44% (42%) {-12%}

* Newt Gingrich 31% (33%) / 50% (48%) {-19%}

* Sarah Palin 37% (39%) / 56% (53%) {-19%}

Among Republicans

* Mike Huckabee 72% (79%) / 14% (11%) {+58%}

* Sarah Palin 67% (69%) / 23% (22%) {+44%}

* Newt Gingrich 55% (60%) / 26% (25%) {+29%}

* Mitt Romney 46% (49%) / 29% (24%) {+17%}

Among Independents

* Mike Huckabee 54% (46%) / 30% (27%) {+24%}

* Mitt Romney 35% (26%) / 41% (39%) {-6%}

* Sarah Palin 34% (35%) / 59% (55%) {-25%}

* Newt Gingrich 28% (27%) / 55% (53%) {-27%}

Among Men

* Mike Huckabee 46% (55%) / 38% (31%) {+8%}

* Mitt Romney 32% (34%) / 49% (42%) {-17%}

* Sarah Palin 36% (44%) / 56% (50%) {-20%}

* Newt Gingrich 32% (36%) / 54% (51%) {-22%}

Among Women

* Mike Huckabee 44% (48%) / 33% (27%) {+11%}

* Mitt Romney 31% (27%) / 39% (42%) {-8%}

* Newt Gingrich 31% (31%) / 47% (46%) {-16%}

* Sarah Palin 38% (36%) / 56% (55%) {-18%}

Survey of 612 Missouri voters was conducted March 3-6, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

H/T The Argo Journal for compilation of data

PPP Nuggets:

Romney does worst with the GOP, pulling only 80% and leaving 16% undecided.

“Mike Huckabee is currently outperforming John McCain, but if President Obama faces anyone else, it’ll be another down-to-the-wire finish in Missouri,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Mike Huckabee Best Bet to beat Obama and turn North Carolina back to Red

In early March,  Mike Huckabee will be making four book tour stops in the battle ground state of North Carolina.  In 2008, McCain narrowly lost in the Tar Heel state to Obama flipping the red state to blue.  In order to turn that state back to it's historic red hue, Republicans best option would be to have Mike Huckabee at the top of the 2012 ticket.


Public Policy Polling

North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey

    * Mike Huckabee 47%   {45%} [46%] (48%)
    * Barack Obama 46%   {49%} [45%] (44%)

    * Barack Obama 47% {47%} [46%] (44%)
    * Mitt Romney 44% {44%} [43%] (44%)

    * Barack Obama 48% {50%} [48%] (46%)
    * Newt Gingrich 44% {44%} [42%] (45%)

    * Barack Obama 51% {50%} [52%] (48%)
    * Sarah Palin 41% {41%} [38%] (43%)

Among Independents

    * Mike Huckabee 45%   {40%} [47%] (46%)
    * Barack Obama 40%    {51%} [37%] (37%)

    * Mitt Romney 42% {39%} [37%] (50%)
    * Barack Obama 41% {44%} [44%] (37%)

    * Barack Obama 45% {49%} [41%] (39%)
    * Newt Gingrich 38% {42%} [38%] (44%)

    * Barack Obama 54% {48%} [51%] (42%)
    * Sarah Palin 33% {32%} [33%] (46%)

Favorability

    * Mike Huckabee     43%  / 34%     +9%
    * Mitt Romney     37%  / 39%     -2%
    * Newt Gingrich   30%  / 48%    -18%
    * Sarah Palin        37%  / 57%     -20%

Survey of 650 North Carolina voters was conducted February 16-21, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

H/T  The Argo Journal  for compilation of data


PPP Nuggets: 

Only Huckabee bests McCain's less than one point loss here.

The main shift has occurred with independents. But while Obama led all 4 with independents previously, he now lags Huckabee 40-45.

Huckabee only GOPer with positive fav in NC- 43/34. Mitt at 37/39, Newt 30/48, Palin 37/57